The late trend of the hottest Tianjiao entering a

2022-10-01
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Tianjiao entered a seasonally weak market, and the late trend is still not optimistic

part I: trend review

although the international oil price still maintained an upward trend in June, it did not bring much support to Tianjiao futures with strong correlation. The price of 0909 contract, the main force of Shanghai Jiaotong, continued to decline in early June, although it rebounded in the late end of the month. However, judging from the price trend in recent weeks, Shanghai rubber will still be unable to escape the seasonal pressure brought by the increase in supply. In addition, various surrounding influencing factors will also play a certain negative effect in the peak supply season, and the late trend of Tianjiao is not optimistic

Part II: fundamental analysis

in the traditional sense, entering June means the peak season of global supply of natural rubber. However, the increasingly frequent El Ni ñ o phenomenon has caused the slow cutting progress of rubber producing countries after entering the peak season of rubber cutting, and also delayed the normal time for the supply and listing of new rubber sources. With the advance of time, the bad weather that plagued the major rubber producing countries in the early stage has been improved, and the cutting progress has gradually recovered. Although the seasonal supply pressure has been postponed, it will still bring heavy pressure on the upward trend of the rubber market. Judging from the trend of Shanghai Jiaotong in recent one month, it is obvious that the long and short sides are relatively stuck. The main contract price basically remained in the wide range of 14000-16000. Under the background of seasonal weakness, the market did not decline rapidly, on the one hand, because the supply pressure was still not concentrated. On the other hand, it was also because China had introduced policies to support the automotive industry, and the domestic tire demand in the first five months was supported by the continuous growth. However, from the perspective of the seasonal law of automobile and tire production, the next few months would be the lowest consumption season of the year, The demand for rubber in the off-season has encountered supply pressure, and it is conceivable that the upward difficulty of rubber price

in addition, from the perspective of incorrect automatic analysis of policies. Since the state launched the 100000 ton natural rubber purchase and storage plan in February, the purchase and storage plan is still within the time frame of implementation, so the purchase and storage price of 14600 yuan/ton still has a certain influence on the natural rubber market. However, it is worth noting that the scale of 100000 tons of purchase and storage since February, with the passage of time, the State Reserve acquisition does not put samples on the support of the market: the ability to relieve the market supply pressure will gradually weaken. Assuming that the purchase and storage plan of 20000 tons per month can be implemented in each month, the acquisition capacity of the State Reserve will only have a scale of 20000 tons in subsequent months, that is to say, the national purchase and storage capacity has been reduced from 14600 yuan/ton to 100000 tons to 14600 yuan/ton to 20000 tons. Therefore, if the supply pressure of the market does not change significantly, then the policy support of 14600 yuan/ton, which has achieved good reputation and evaluation in the industry, will be a process of gradual weakening. Therefore, on the basis of paying attention to national collection and storage, we cannot ignore the actual supply and demand relationship in the market

from the perspective of international crude oil prices, the support may be another factor for the strengthening of rubber prices due to clear water. Although the upward trend of oil prices remained intact, it brought cost support to the synthetic rubber industry and then pushed up the price of natural rubber. But the rise in crude oil prices is like a double-edged sword. In the long run, the rise of crude oil is bound to have a certain negative impact on the rubber market. At present, the global auto industry is in a downturn, and the rise in oil prices may worsen the situation of the auto industry. The signs that auto sales began to cool in the first week after China raised the oil price of finished products in early June are a good proof; Besides, industries other than the automobile industry will also suffer from the cost pressure brought about by the rise of oil prices. With the continuous rise of international crude oil prices, the "timetable" for domestic product oil prices to be raised again will be put on the agenda. Therefore, the rise of international crude oil prices will also be bad for the medium-term trend of Tianjiao market

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